Cocoa Market Outlook November 2026: Arrivals, ICE Inventories, COT and Supply Deficit
Why cocoa prices are falling despite Côte d’Ivoire arrivals 48.6% below last year: stocks, crop forecasts, weather, positioning and EU regulation.
# Cocoa Market Outlook: Why Prices Are Falling Despite Weak Arrivals
*9 November 2026 | Market research*
**The central contradiction:** Côte d’Ivoire deliveries are sharply below last year, yet cocoa futures are testing multi-month lows. This reflects a distinction between **available supply today** and **possible crop shortages later**.
## 1. Côte d’Ivoire port arrivals
Reuters reported exporters' estimate of **55,000 tonnes** for the week ending **8 November**, **48.6% below** the equivalent week last year. This was **8.5% above** the preceding week's **50,705 tonnes**. The weekly flow is recovering but remains far below the year-ago pace. Arrivals are **not the same as production**: harvest timing, farmer selling, transport, smuggling and logistics can delay deliveries. Claims of full capacity by December need a documented forecast.
## 2. ICE inventories
US ICE **warehouse stocks** reached **3,751,670 bags** on 6 November, compared with **3,481,504** on 30 September: **+270,166 bags (+7.8%)**. At **60 kg per bag**, that is approximately **225,100 tonnes**. These are **US warehouse stocks, not worldwide inventories or necessarily ICE-certified deliverable stocks**. Rising warehouse stocks can cushion near-term tightness, but certified stocks, quality, location and physical premiums need separate examination.