The latest completed price session (2026-11-12) moved +3.24%. Reported warehouse stocks (2026-11-12) changed +0.34% against 2026-11-11. These observations describe separate reporting periods. They do not establish a global surplus or deficit; compare arrivals, demand and positioning before forming a market view.
Automated research edition. Compiled from dated market figures and source-linked reporting. The conclusion follows explicit evidence rules; this edition has not been individually written or reviewed by Jed. Assembly time and limitations are recorded below.
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Morning Brief: the latest completed session, key supply figures and what to watch next.
Illustrates the coverage, not a live report. Choose the editions you want.
Your cocoa briefing
Good morning. Here’s your starting point for cocoa research: what the last completed session showed, how the physical figures fit, and what deserves a closer look.
Let’s start with price. The saved New York benchmark closed at 5,066 USD / tonne on 12 Nov 2026, up 3.24% against 11 Nov 2026.
Next, the supply cushion: reported warehouse stocks stood at 3,763,466 60 kg bags on 12 Nov 2026, up 0.34% against 11 Nov 2026. ≈ 225,807.96 tonnes is the same stock expressed in tonnes, not extra supply. This is warehouse inventory, not the certified-stock total.
The point to investigate is the contrast: price rose even though the dated warehouse report showed a build. That leaves the recovery needing explanation beyond a simple shortage story. The two reports may cover different periods.
Positioning adds another layer: the saved managed-money balance was 14,214 contracts net short as of 3 Nov 2026. Look at gross longs and shorts before calling the next move fresh buying or short covering. This snapshot predates publication.
Before you read on
This reading format uses only the figures saved with this edition. It is automatically assembled, not a personal note written or reviewed by Jed. Historical editions retain their original reporting dates; the clearer reading format was introduced on 12 November 2026.
Latest reported figures
NY cocoa · latest completed session: 5,066 USD / tonne. Report date 2026-11-12. +3.24% vs 2026-11-11. +3.24% vs the previous completed session. Delayed data. Source: Source · finance.yahoo.com ↗
This is the completed-session price benchmark. Compare the same contract and currency before interpreting a change; it is not a live quote or a direct measure of the physical crop.
ICE total warehouse stocks: 3,763,466 60 kg bags (≈ 225,807.96 tonnes). Report date 2026-11-12. +0.34% vs 2026-11-11. Reported warehouse total; this is not the certified stock figure. Source: Source · ice.com ↗
Warehouse stocks describe reported availability within this series. A build can ease near-term availability pressure, while a draw can tighten it, but persistence and certified-stock coverage must be checked separately. The tonnes reference is a unit conversion, not additional stock.
Managed money net · COT: -14,214 contracts. Report date 2026-11-03. Commercial net -20,568 · Open interest 231,342. Positions as of report date; weekly publication. Source: Source · publicreporting.cftc.gov ↗
The net position is a dated exposure snapshot. Check gross longs and shorts to understand the change, and retain the publication lag when comparing it with price. This number does not measure physical beans.
Recent cocoa headlines
Cacao Butter Market Forecast to 2035, Driven by Premium Chocolate Demand and Clean-Label Cosmetics — IndexBox; 2026-11-12T19:46:04+00:00. Headline context only; check the full evidence before assigning market impact. Source · news.google.com ↗
Excessive Ivory Coast Rains Disrupt Cocoa Supplies and Boost Prices — Barchart.com; 2026-11-12T19:20:18+00:00. Headline context only; check the full evidence before assigning market impact. Source · news.google.com ↗
Cocoa Futures are Caught Between Falling Prices and Growing Supply Risks - Which Will — Barchart.com; 2026-11-12T16:11:00+00:00. Headline context only; check the full evidence before assigning market impact. Source · news.google.com ↗
For each scheduled release, write down the previous compatible observation and the reporting period before the new result appears. Compare the actual result with a sourced expectation only when one exists. An event on the calendar is a prompt to investigate, not a forecast that the market will move. Revisit the morning interpretation after the release rather than carrying it forward unchanged.
ICE total warehouse stocks: 3,763,466 60 kg bags, reported 2026-11-12. No compatible earlier-edition figure available.
Managed money net · COT: 2026-11-03 remains the report date. No newly dated observation.
5 additional external source links compared with the earlier edition. This measures changed coverage, not the number of new market events; repeated reporting and changed URLs can affect it.
Evidence-led conclusion
Supports higher prices No confirmed tightening signal in the comparable public figures shown here.
Supports lower prices ICE total warehouse stocks changed +0.34% (2026-11-11 to 2026-11-12). A build can support easier near-term availability; this is not a global balance estimate.
What remains uncertain The completed price session (2026-11-12) changed +3.24%. This is observed price action; it does not establish which news caused it or forecast the next session. Crop outcomes, demand and the persistence of physical changes need independent, dated confirmation. Conflicting signals remain unresolved rather than being forced into a single score.
What could change the view Producer Price Index: 13 Nov 2026, 13:30 UK. Source: Source · bls.gov ↗
Read this as a conditional evidence assessment, not a trading instruction. The comparison preserves the figures available in each publication and does not update the original report with today’s data.
Morning snapshot assembled 2026-11-13T07:00:22.070Z for 13 November 2026. Prices refer to the latest completed session, not an overnight live quote.
The market in context
The latest completed price session (2026-11-12) moved +3.24%. Reported warehouse stocks (2026-11-12) changed +0.34% against 2026-11-11. These observations describe separate reporting periods. They do not establish a global surplus or deficit; compare arrivals, demand and positioning before forming a market view.
Method and limitations
Automatically assembled from dated source records using explicit comparison rules. Not individually written or reviewed by Jed. Different reporting clocks are retained; no claim that a headline caused a price move. Warehouse totals are not certified stocks and weekly arrivals are not season-total production. No invented consensus, price target or personal trading recommendation.
Additional reading context
Educational explanation added to help interpret this article. It is not a new market update or a revision to the original dated figures.
Building the morning view
Start with the last completed price session, then check which physical reports have actually changed since that close. A morning edition is a starting point for research: the latest available number may still describe an earlier trading day. Keep the price date beside the inventory, arrivals and positioning dates so that an older observation is not mistaken for an overnight development.
The useful question is whether independent evidence points in the same direction. A warehouse build alongside improving comparable arrivals may suggest easier near-term availability, but it leaves demand and later crop performance unresolved. If prices rise against that backdrop, investigate new information and changes in participation before assuming the physical figures have become irrelevant.
The original upside paragraph considered structured figures only and omitted relevant crop-risk reporting. It should not be read as an absence of upside risks.
Potential support for higher prices: AFP reporting published by eNCA on 10 November attributes a possible 21%–25% reduction in Côte d’Ivoire cocoa production to SODEXAM’s weather assessment. This is a conditional crop-risk estimate, not a measured loss of that size and not a forecast of global production falling by a quarter. Its realisation depends on origin weather and subsequent crop evidence.
The inventory build cited in this briefing remains a separate near-term counterweight. Both can coexist: available warehouse supply can rise while risks to a later harvest increase. Neither establishes the cause of the session’s price move.
The original publication is retained; this dated correction adds the omitted context.
Published research and personal commentary, not personalised investment advice. Trade ideas can fail; evaluate the assumptions and dated follow-ups. The original published post is preserved.