Learn what ICE total warehouse stocks and certified cocoa stocks measure, how 60 kg bags convert to tonnes, and what divergent movements can tell you.
What are ICE cocoa warehouse stocks?
Warehouse stocks count cocoa held in the warehouses covered by the exchange report. The figure is a snapshot of that reporting network. The movement reflects beans entering or leaving reported stocks and can differ from the movement in cocoa immediately eligible for exchange delivery.
What are certified cocoa stocks?
Certified stocks are the portion that has the exchange certification reflected in the report. Certification relates to delivery eligibility under exchange rules, including relevant grading requirements. Warehouse holdings can include beans that have yet to be certified or that have lost their certified status. Check the report’s market, date and category before comparing figures.
6 NOVEMBER WORKED EXAMPLE
ICE Futures U.S. reported 3,751,670 bags in total warehouse stocks and 665,520 certified bags on 6 November 2026. Using the 60 kg reporting unit, multiply the bag count by 0.06 to convert to metric tonnes.
Total warehouse stocks: 3,751,670 × 0.06 = 225,100.2 tonnes.
Certified share: 665,520 ÷ 3,751,670 = approximately 17.7%. Adding the certified figure to the total would double-count that portion of the warehouse stock.
Can total stocks rise while certified stocks fall?
Yes. Imagine 10,000 bags enter reported warehouses, while 5,000 bags already in those warehouses lose certified status and stay physically stored. In that simplified example, total stocks rise by 10,000 bags and certified stocks fall by 5,000. The two changes describe different events. The aggregate numbers alone cannot identify the specific reason for a given day’s move.
How to read stocks alongside price
Compare the latest report against earlier dates using the same exchange and category. Check whether the certified share is changing and whether the front contract is strengthening or weakening against the next delivery month. A larger warehouse total can coincide with tighter exchange-deliverable stocks. Read the nearby spread alongside the stocks report before drawing conclusions about delivery pressure.
Warehouse reports cover a defined network. Global ending stocks and processor inventories have a wider scope, and Côte d’Ivoire port arrivals measure weekly flow. Keep those measures separate when comparing the balance between supply and demand.
Educational explanation added to help interpret this article. It is not a new market update or a revision to the original dated figures.
Putting the guide into practice
Choose one dated observation relevant to this guide and trace it back to the original source. Record the benchmark, unit and reporting period before comparing it with another figure. This turns the explanation into a repeatable research process: establish what is measured, check what changed and identify what the observation cannot tell you.
Use the database to check the neighbouring evidence. A price observation can be compared with physical availability and positioning; an inventory or arrivals observation can be checked against compatible history and demand reporting. Agreement between several observations can strengthen a hypothesis, while disagreement highlights the next question to investigate. Neither outcome removes the need to check timing and definitions.
Applying this topic
For stock-related research, first distinguish the total warehouse series from certified availability. Do not add a subset to its parent total. If bags are converted into tonnes, retain the stated bag weight and original figure so that the conversion remains auditable. A tonne comparison with arrivals is useful for scale, but a warehouse stock is a balance at a point in time while arrivals are a flow over a period. Their units can match without their economic meaning being interchangeable.
Additional examples & research
Update
Read changes as well as levels
The 6 November figures above are a historical example. For subsequent observations, use the live inventory page rather than treating the original publication as a continuously refreshed feed.
When a certified share changes, test the numerator and denominator separately. In an invented example, 200,000 certified bags out of 1,000,000 total bags is 20%. If total stocks rise to 1,100,000 while certified stocks remain unchanged, the share falls to 18.18% without any decline in certified quantity.
Check
Why it matters
Absolute certified quantity
Identifies a change in that reported category
Absolute warehouse total
Identifies a change in the broader reported balance
Certified share
Describes composition, not physical flow by itself
Receipts and withdrawals
Helps explain changes where the report supplies them
A lower share alone does not establish that beans have left the warehouse. Equally, a higher total does not establish that all additional beans are eligible for delivery or offered for sale.
Published research and personal commentary, not personalised investment advice. Trade ideas can fail; evaluate the assumptions and dated follow-ups. The original published post is preserved.